Preliminaries
  • Introduction
  • Thinking Modes
  • Randomness and Thinking Flaws
Probabilistic Thinking
  • Probability, Relative Frequency, and Availability Heuristic
  • How to Interpret Statics; Correlation and Causation
  • Finding Probabilities
  • Odds vs Probability
  • Degree of Belief: Starting a Successful Business; Murder Trials
Probabilities, Conditioning, and Bayesian Thinking
  • Probability Laws: Raining, Airplanes, and Elections
  • Conditioning and Independence
  • Disease Probabilities
  • Bayes' Rule: False Positive Paradox and Cancer Screening
  • Courts and Bayes’ Rule
Rare Events
  • Confirmation Bias and Lucky Shirts
  • Psychics, Coincidences, and Bernoulli Trials
  • Birthdays and Related Scenarios in Life
  • Psychics' Strategies and Probability Amplification
Randomness and Skills
  • Narrative Fallacy and Hindsight Bias
  • Introduction to Randomness in Finance
  • How Should We Invest in the Stock Market?
Random Variables and Expectation
  • Random Variables, Expectation, and the Law of Large Numbers
  • Regression Toward the Mean
Decision Types
  • Uncertainty, Confidence, and Rational Decisions
  • Simplification and Decision Capacity
  • Different Types of Decisions and Events
  • Potential Harm and Decision Structures
Low-Harm Decisions
  • Risk Aversion and the Expected values
  • Should I buy Extra Warranty?
  • Stocks or Real Estate?
Utilities, Satisficing, and Pitfalls
  • Using Expected Utility
  • How to Quantify and Prioritize?
  • The Sunk Cost Fallacy
  • Satisficing and Simplicity
  • Comparison Decisions, Halo Effects, and Quantifying
High-Impact Decisions and Events
  • Potential Harm and Why the Rich Get Richer
  • High Impact Rare Events
  • Efficiency and Its Flaws
  • Unknown and Hidden Risks
Positive High-Impact Events
  • Increasing Our Chances of Success
  • Exposing Ourselves to Positive High-Impact Events