PRESENTATION
  • Country Risk Mooc Presentation 2020-25
  • How is the Country Risk MOOC organized?
  • Warming up -Test your country risk knowledge in 14 questions
  • Reading exercice: Beck, O'Sullivan and El Erian's approach to risk?
  • For Skema's Sophia & Paris campus: Organization and rules of the game!
  • Additional readings: Mandelbrot + Taleb + El Erian (formerly at Pimco)
  • Country risk and the Pandemic Crisis
What is risk? What is uncertainty?
  • Introduction to Section 2
  • Where does risk come from?
  • Check your understanding of the historical emergence of risk taking
  • Economic approaches to risk in the age of globalization
  • Stiglitz' and Krugman's approach to mounting global risks
  • Recommended Readings:
  • Additional readings for the bravest!
What is Country Risk all about ?
  • Introduction to Section 3
  • What is Country Risk exposure and its main components?
  • The key components of Country Risk in the globalization and its main categories
  • Global risk and wealth gap
  • Country risk and wealth gaps
  • Recommended Readings:
  • Additional readings for the bravest!
Information and Economic Intelligence. Bouchet & alii. Chapters 4 & 5
  • Introduction to section 4
  • Country Risk and Economic Intelligence
  • The main sources of information regarding Country Risk assessment
  • Suggested readings
Risk Assessment – Balance of payments. Bouchet & alii. Chapter 8
  • Introduction to section 5: The crucial importance of the balance of payments
  • Balance of payments and country risk: the “J” Curve
  • Understanding the balance of payments in country risk assessment
  • Exercise: Tunisia 2018-19: "Where will the money come from?
  • Current account deficit adjustment
  • Recommended Readings:
Risk Assessment – External debt crisis. Bouchet & alii. Chapter 12
  • Introduction to section 6
  • Capital account and External financing
  • Understanding the role of the Capital Account in Country Risk!
  • Balance of payments and sovereign debt crisis?
  • Check your understanding of liquidity and solvency ratios
  • Suggested Readings:
  • Additional Readings for the bravest!
Country Risk and Debt Restructuring: Bouchet & alii, Chapter 12
  • Introduction to section 7
  • Introduction to Sovereign Debt Restructuring
  • The Paris and London Clubs of External Creditors
  • Understanding the complexity of external debt negotiations
Risk Assessment - Political risk analysis. Bouchet & alii. Chapters 9 & 10
  • Introduction to section 8
  • What about political risk?
  • What are the root causes of political turmoil and social violence?
  • Exercise: Political risk (Source: FT Business)
  • Where does political turmoil come from?
  • Governance matters!
  • Suggested Readings
Risk Assessment : Ratings and Rankings. Bouchet & alii. Chapters 11 & 13
  • Introduction to section 9
  • Sovereign credit ratings (cont')
  • Risk ratings, country rankings, and crisis prediction
  • Suggested Readings:
  • Assignment: Build your own index of risk indices!
Country Risk mitigation strategies: Bouchet & alii. Chapter 15
  • Introduction to section 10
  • Country risk mitigation options
  • Country risk mitigation strategies
  • Additional Readings:
SOLVENCIA CASE STUDY in an age of global pandemic!
  • Introduction to section 11
  • Solvencia Case Study 2020: Casino Bank and Country Risk Assessment
CONCLUSION: Looking for the canari in the coal mine?
  • Introduction to section 12: Let's look at a wide range of market indicators
  • Capital Flight and Country Risk
  • Check your understanding of the links between corruption, governance and country
  • Suggested Readings:
  • Wrap up time !
  • Final conclusion