Update: FPL is a seasonal game and this was made ahead of the 18/19 season, therefore some of the info is now out of date. Anyone can now join for free, but I'd advise caution as there may be outdated/incomplete ideas. Nonetheless, I hope there is something useful should you look through the videos.
If anyone is curious, I finished 247th this season, which is a pretty amazing achievement after 238th last season!
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League - The Essential Guide 2018/2019!
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) has exploded in popularity in recent years, and that popularity has led to more and more blogs, online communities, and discussions surrounding the game. However, a lot of the time it can seem like information overload. Endless stat tables, excel spreadsheets, conflicting opinions and seemingly no right answers. Unfortunately, this is a side effect of a game with incredibly high variance, where it's difficult to determine whether the decisions you make are good or bad.
The aim of this course is to present what I think are useful concepts which can be used to build a mental framework on how to think about the game. We'll go over the basics of expected goals and expected assists, the most fundamentally accurate statistic to predict future success of both individual players and teams. We'll aim to avoid fuzzy thinking, and focus on where the points actually come from, so we don't end up conflicted and stressing over minute details that aren't worth lending too much time and energy towards.
This game is supposed to be for fun, and I want it to stay fun for everyone. As anyone who takes it seriously, however, whether you're aiming for a high overall rank or you just want to beat your family/work mates in mini-leagues, it can be pretty depressing when things don't go your way, especially over periods of weeks at a time. We will talk about why focusing on short term outcomes isn't healthy, nor useful, and that all that matters is the decisions at the time you make them. That's all we can control and we have to accept this!
My name is Tim, and although I've only three seasons experience under my belt, I've spent a great deal of time trying to understand how to succeed in this game, going from a finish of 251,641 in 15/16, to 6,151 in 16/17 and a pretty outstanding 238 in 17/18, for which I won a small token of £150 from my mini-leagues. I want to show my approach and why I don't think this was a fluke, as I aim to achieve another top 10k finish this coming season